Blog Post

Three Steps to Election-Proof Your Retirement

  • By Travis Echols
  • 07 Sep, 2020

Are you wondering about the impact of the 2020 election results on your retirement? If so, you are not alone.

The two political parties are greatly polarized. While the Democrat party has moved further toward ethno-centric socialism, the Republican party has moved further toward nationalistic populism. The difference in the two parties’ goals for our country is wider than ever. 

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How much should the upcoming election affect your financial decisions?

Should you plan for one outcome or another? Should you change your retirement plans based on what you think will happen? Should you change your portfolio now, or after you know who wins, or not at all?

Here is a breakdown of the S&P 500 (large cap U.S. stock) index based on the parties in office within the last 50 years (1970-2019) according to BTN Research:

  • +17.5% per year (total return) under a Democratic President and a Republican-led Congress,
  • +5.4% per year under a Republican President and a Congress controlled by the Democrats.
  • +12.3% per year when the White House and Congress were controlled by the same political party.
  • +10.8% per year when the House and the Senate were controlled by different parties, as is the case in 2020 (regardless of which party is in the White House)

Let me warn you to be careful with data such as this. As I’ve written in the past, other economic factors usually play a greater role in stock market returns than the political affiliation of government leaders. 

Also, the policies enacted by one party can greatly impact the economy inherited by another party. With that said,  ultimately, without doubt,  politics plays a huge role in the prosperity of a nation and its people.  See my article, "America Politics and Your Personal Prosperity"

Regarding the 2020 election, the economists I follow think that if Democrats take control of the two chambers of Congress and the Presidency, taxes will be raised, and American energy production will be negatively impacted. And that is just a start.

As for taxes, it’s not just corporate and personal marginal income tax rates that may change. Democrats are promising to raise capital gains taxes while President Trump is talking about lowering them and further reducing ordinary income taxes.

Any of these actions promised by Democrats, if enacted, would have a chilling affect on company profits (hence stocks) and the economy.  We can hope that even if Democrats did win big and implement these policies, their negative affect would be short-lived as a severe backlash toward more fiscally responsible free-market policies would be reflected in the Congressional elections results of 2022.  They are also likely to inherit a sharp COVID-19 recovery back toward the strong Trump economy before the virus. 

A Trump reelection, on the other hand, may spark massive riots as in the 60's, which was not good for stocks. 

With all these headwinds, there are strong tailwinds too, like a massive productivity boom being observed that indicates 2021 could  be a great year for stocks.

After the election, you will be able to look back with 20/20 hindsight. My article "I wish I had done that" addresses how to think clearly about decision-making and outcomes.

Here are three steps that will help you have confidence amidst the uncertainty of a politically charged election year.

1. Ask the right questions

Based on my comments above, I do think questions about the 2020 election results are relevant. What you should do to prepare, however, depends on your personal financial goals and timeline.

  •    Are you already retired?
  •    Are you close to retirement?
  •    Will you need to take withdrawals from your portfolio?
  •    Are you already taking withdrawals from your portfolio?
  •    Are those withdrawals sufficient to meet your needs?
  •    Are those withdrawals sustainable for life, or do you risk running short if a worse-case scenario unfolds?
  •     Do you have a plan if a worse-case scenario unfolds?

You can’t allow your long-term goals to be sabotaged over speculations and worries about current events. Make a plan that addresses your long-term goals with a look at historical evidence over long periods.  Keep you focus on your long-term goals, with various contingent scenarios (which may or may not materialize) in mind.

2. Put away your crystal ball

Warren Buffet said, “The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good.”

If you’re thinking about cashing out your portfolio now and getting back in the market later when “the coast is clear”, you are not thinking realistically.  

The short-term moves of the market are unknowable. To be successful with this strategy you must not only outguess millions of investors when to get out, but also when to get back in. The odds of doing this successfully are slim and the approach is more likely to backfire. 

Many who try this, sell at the wrong time and then find themselves paralyzed, sitting in cash on the sidelines during the markets' sudden and tremendous upswings, which makes it increasingly harder for them to buy back in.   

By the way, if an advisor has such predictive powers, they would not be spending their time helping you. They would be on their private island enjoying the ocean breeze. 😊

You also don't want to wait until the market gets crazy to adjust your portfolio to its proper balance, for a host of reasons. You need to have your portfolio properly allocated before any craziness begins.    

Of course, rebalancing your portfolio helps you stay on track as your investment mix drifts with changing prices. Rebalancing naturally employs the strategy of buying low and selling high as you make these adjustments.

To learn more about the 12 key principles of investing we use at Echols Financial Services, download my free Investment Philosophy PDF Guide.

3. Think time, not timing

After you have clearly identified when you need your portfolio to produce income, and how much, you can then decide how best to invest those assets to achieve those goals.

Usually, you need only a small portion of your portfolio for short-term needs. And that portion of your portfolio should not be in stocks. That portion should be in something stable so you can remain confident during the constantly changing movements of the stock market. 

If you are in or nearing retirement, this portion outside the stock market is usually larger depending on factors such as your time horizon, other available income sources, investment withdrawal needs, and the current valuations of stocks and bonds at the time. To learn more, sign up for my free PDF Book, How to Invest in Stocks and Bonds in Retirement.   

We call this more stable portion of your retirement assets your war chest. Having this war chest of cash and bonds allows you to know your short term needs can be met and allows the long-term growth (stocks) portion of your portfolio the time it needs to deliver higher returns without being sold during market disruptions.

For younger investors who are saving for retirement, it usually makes sense to invest heavily in stocks. If the market falls, great news: you are buying more shares at lower prices.

But if you are in or nearing retirement, growth should not be your only goal. You need to also think safety, preservation, and distribution of a reliable lifetime income. This requires a different way of investing and a change in mindset.

Market timing, speculation, and betting your retirement savings on the election results will not likely serve you well.

What you need is a plan that gives you confidence that your retirement is secure no matter who wins the election.

To learn more about how to withdraw a lifetime income from your portfolio, signup for my free PDF book, How to Retire Forever on Your Investments.

As always, this free content is not to be taken as advice of any kind. You will want to consult your financial advisor before implementing any of these strategies. 


At Echols Financial Services, we specialize in retirement planning, tax planning, and investing for individuals over age 50. We do our best work with people who are at or near retirement, who are optimistic but cautious. Learn more about our no-cost, no-obligation process to help you make your retirement a success.
Travis Echols, CRPC®, CSA
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor℠  
Certified Senior Adviser
Echols Financial Services
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Recent Articles

By Travis Echols January 30, 2024
Building and maintaining an optimized portfolio can save or make a retiree tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars over a long retirement. Here is a framework for helping you construct an optimized retirement portfolio. The academic research from the last several decades would suggest seven major building blocks aimed at balancing liquidity, income, growth, and safety over a 20 to 30-year period. 


  • Liquidity--Retirement assets are not being locked up or annuitized such that capital is not available for emergencies.
  • Income—Using an optimized withdrawal rate, an increasing income is produced to combat inflation (unlike many pensions, bank and insurance strategies that are not inflation-adjusted).
  • Growth--assets that can combat inflation over a 20 to 30-year period, giving the retiree more income and upside potential under normal and good economic times.
  • Safety--manages the myriad of investment risks like market risk, inflation risk, and credit risk. Under worst-case scenarios, if withdrawal amounts are adjusted by using guardrails, the portfolio can still provide a lifetime income.

 

Here is an executive summary of how to build up a portfolio for retirement in seven steps.

1. Values clarification and goal-setting . Figure out the income objective and capability of your retirement assets in lifestyle terms, then financial terms. In other words, set realistic, specific, financial goals based on your core life values.

2. Asset allocation glide path . Figure out how to diversify your retirement assets among stocks, bonds, and cash, based on your age, risk tolerance, retirement goals, and changing market values.

3. Valuation-dependent efficient frontier . Figure out which areas of the markets are historically inexpensive, and which are historically expensive. Don’t take on more volatility than you need to for the growth you need or desire.

4. Multi-asset class approach . Diversify one more step for more growth and less volatility. Put more money in the specific market areas that are less expensive and less money in the specific market areas that are more expensive.

5. Tax-aware asset location and distribution . Save as much on taxes as possible by figuring out which type of investments should be held in which types of accounts. If you are drawing an income from your assets, figure out the least-costly order for making withdrawals.

6. Investment selection based on account type (qualified, nonqualified) and asset-class propensity and magnitude of outperformance (passive, factor, managed, etc. ). Figure out what kind of investment to use (index mutual fund, factor mutual fund, actively managed mutual fund, single factor ETF, multifactor ETF, passive ETF, individual stocks, individual bonds, Unit Investment Trust, closed-end fund, etc.) based on the account type, asset class, and growth and income needs.

7. Rules-guided rebalancing based on retirement glide path and multi-asset-class approach . Readjust the investment mix based on your changing personal situation and changing market values.

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Here is a summary of the details backing this approach. Also, click here for more background information regarding my investment philosophy.

  1.   Values clarification and goal-setting

Investment planning for (or in) retirement starts with retirement planning. You start with thinking about your life goals...your dreams...your ideal life in retirement. It could involve doing no work, working part-time, or doing seasonal work. Your ideal life could be going back to school, spending more time with family, traveling, ministry, etc.  

Ask yourself questions like, "What would I want to do if I didn't need to work for money?" or "What are the most important dangers, opportunities, and strengths I need to address?" or“Ten years from now, if I am looking back on a successful ten years, what will I have achieved?”

This conversation allows you to create specific goals around your most cherished values. And your goals will be unique to you. You then design an investment plan to help you live your ideal life.

This kind of goal-focused, plan-driven approach minimizes the chances of making bad investment choices based on current events and emotions. Instead, you can choose and maintain the specific mix of investments that can best deliver the results you need--using a disciplined, research-driven approach.

 

2.   Asset allocation glide path

The next major question is what kind of investments do you need to meet your goals. All investments have risk. Even "safe" investments over long periods have inflation risk. No single investment delivers growth, high income, and safety of principal. The key is designing a portfolio that balances them in a way that supports your retirement objectives.

And this mix may change over time. For example, for most people, it makes sense to gradually decrease their exposure to high-growth, high-volatility assets like stocks (i.e., equities) as they approach retirement. In retirement, it is usually best to maintain a flat equity glide path, dynamically adjusted for valuation. This approach protects you from the retirement-danger-zone risks of portfolio size effect and sequence risk, while allowing you to take advantage of bear markets and market corrections. See How to Navigate the Retirement Danger Zone .


By Travis Echols December 24, 2022
Case study of 64 and 62 year old early retirees doing strategic Roth conversions at dirt cheap prices while maintaining their Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidy until Medicare
By Travis Echols October 8, 2021

Protecting your lifetime retirement savings from excessive taxes is a crucial part of holistic financial planning. This involves protecting your IRA, 401k, lump sum pension rollover, Social Security, and any other type of retirement account or income stream from crushing tax rates.

So let's be sure to differentiate tax preparation from tax planning .

Tax preparation , also called tax return preparation, looks backward, one year at a time, to get the numbers right to accurately calculate your tax liability (and how much you owe or overpaid).

Tax planning on the other hand looks at taxes in the context of your overall financial picture. A tax planner not only looks in the rear-view mirror but will look forward 20 to 30 years at your projected tax liability and ask what can be done to lower your lifetime  tax bill.

By Travis Echols August 13, 2021

If you have savings outside of pretax retirement accounts invested in capital assets (like stocks, bonds, ETFs, mutual funds, precious metals, jewelry, and real estate) which have large unrealized capital gains, this article is for you. 

You may be missing the opportunity to pay zero taxes NOW instead of 15% or higher rates in the future. 

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By Travis Echols July 3, 2021

Originally written on Aug 2, 2018 and updated for tax law changes. 

If you are no longer working and have reached the age of 72, you probably know about Uncle Sam’s rule for you to take a Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) from your traditional and rollover IRA(s) each year for the rest of your life. You can always withdraw more, but this requirement is the minimum you must take or be severely penalized. Fortunately, this rule does not apply to Roth IRAs. (The SECURE Act of 2019 changed the starting RMD age from 70½ to 72 starting in 2020, but fortunately you can still make a Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD) starting the year you turn 70½.)

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If you have delayed paying taxes in your pretax IRA, 401(k), or 403(b), etc, there comes a time when the IRS wants their taxes. And if you don’t give them their taxes based on their required withdrawal schedule, you'll get hit with a 50% penalty on top of what you owed.

Along with Social Security and other retirement income, this RMD can significantly raise your tax rate. Also read How to Dodge the Social Security Tax Torpedo . There are not many ways to reduce this tax burden. In the past, retirees have used various deductions including charitable cash contributions and gifting of highly appreciated assets to charities. (The latter not only gives you, the donor, a deduction but also avoids a long-term capital gains tax bill.)

However, with the passing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) , with its almost doubling of the standard deduction, itemizing deductions won’t make sense for near as many retirees. Ah, but there is still a strategy. But first let’s better understand the RMD.  

By Travis Echols June 24, 2021

The latest book I am reading is “ The Psychology of Money ” by Morgan Housel. Chapter 3 is entitled “Never Enough”. In this chapter, Housel talks about  when rich people do crazy things.  

He tells stories of wealthy people who never had a sense of enough and wrecked their reputations, families, freedom, and happiness because of it.

I have also talked to older couples who tell me they once had a much better retirement in view, but the quest for more led them to make unwise investment decisions that left them financially crippled in retirement.

The importance of knowing when you have enough is not only vital to when  you retire but also how  you retire. It can affect how you invest, how you withdraw, and your overall satisfaction before and during retirement. 

Be sure to read to the end where I summarize a few key takeaways.

Housel makes the four following observations in chapter 3 of his book.

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By Travis Echols May 21, 2021

Whether you do mini-Roth conversions over several years or big Roth conversions in a few strategic years, the Roth conversion strategy could save you tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars over your retirement.

This article will get deep into the issues of Roth conversions for retirees and the ten steps to take to be sure it is done properly. Be sure to scan or read to the end where I will give you the simple answer to getting your Roth conversion questions answered.

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By Travis Echols April 10, 2021

Making big financial decisions immediately following the death of a close family member can be dangerous. It is often best to allow some time before tackling big financial decisions. On the other hand, some people find getting immersed in the finances is helpful in coping with the loss.

Whatever way is best for you, you will need to give it your careful attention to avoid big financial mistakes. The different types of accounts have different rules. I'll address the most common types.

In the case of the death of a parent or anyone other than your spouse in which you are a non-spouse beneficiary, there are many rules that you must know to make the best decision for you and your family.  (In this article, I use the common parent-child inheritance, but the planning strategies can apply to other non-spouse situations.) 

Your decisions can have major tax and investment consequences, both now and in the future. And some of these decisions have time deadlines keyed to your parent’s date of death. Also, some of these decisions are irreversible.

You can download my free Estate Planning Survivor Checklist here .

So, you don’t want to rush in and make decisions without knowing the rules, and you don’t want to wait too long and be stuck with fewer options.

(In this article, I am not addressing estate taxes. As of 2021, only estates valued at $11.70 million or more are subject to federal estate tax. But there are plenty of other tax pitfalls to navigate around. I am also going to focus on liquid savings like investment and retirement accounts, versus real estate which will be for another time.)

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By Travis Echols October 15, 2020

Delaying Social Security makes a lot of sense for many retirees; but there are common pitfalls that can cost you a bundle.

As you know, the longer you delay your Social Security Retirement benefit, the higher your lifetime monthly payments are figured to be. This increase in delaying continues until age 70, after which there are no further increases for delaying.

This increase for each month that you delay filing is not small, especially considering the current low interest rates. Even after full Social Security age, your payment goes up by 8% per year until age 70.

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Here are the five big mistakes of delaying your Social Security retirement benefit.

By Travis Echols August 2, 2020

If you are like most Americans, when you retire and stop earning income, Social Security will be one of your most valuable assets. There are many little-known facets of how Social Security works, how it applies to you, and questions regarding how to best use your Social Security benefits. 

Often the various questions swirling around the idea of Social Security can feel overwhelming. As you plan for your own, your spouse’s, and your family’s protection as you age, it is important to know the available Social Security benefits that might be available to you and your family.  

It is also important to know what becomes of those benefits when you die. To help you, I am going to discuss three commonly asked questions.

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